The Academy Awards will be held later this week, on Sunday the 26th, local time. I'm pretty sure it collides directly with a music festival I have lined up, so I won't even see the broadcast. Here are my predictions, and my final thoughts, on what should and will happen in that ceremony.
Best Documentary
We begin on a blind spot. I've only actually seen two of them this year. I think If a Tree Falls is dangerously misguided, and I flat-out hated Pina, which I accept is probably my fault, rather than the movie's, but there it is. The three Paradise Lost films seem to have had a genuine impact, and I think their real-life work will be rewarded. I've still only seen the first one.
Will win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Should win: I don't care
Best Animated Feature
I should have watched Chico and Rita before writing this, but I've seen the other four. The Animation branch seems poised to do something really crazy this year, and I suspect they'll award one of 'the crazy ones'. It won't be A Cat in Paris, because it's all a bit slight, as nice as it looks. Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots have literally zero chance to win. Rango is excellent. It was my favourite animated movie of the year, but it seems like a really weird winner here.
Will win: Chico and Rita
Should win: I don't know, that or Rango
Best Adapted Screenplay
It's a strong category this year. Hugo is pretty widely represented, but it's not the writing that makes that movie great. The Ides of March seems unlikely, for as much as I loved it. Moneyball has the thankless task of making a baseball movie for people who don't care about baseball, and it is astoundingly well written. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy seems like it was probably very difficult to adapt, but I really don't think the job was all that well done. I think we have a clear winner in this category, in the form of the best-written movie of the year.
Will win: The Descendants
Should win: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay
Bridesmaids is a joke nomination, and kind of unexplainable on this list. Margin Call is well written indeed, but is not amongst the heavy hitters here. A Separation is the wildcard, since who knows what they'll do with a foreign film here. It is outstanding, but I think this is a two-horse race. Midnight in Paris has a little less love from me than from most, but it is very clever in a way Woody Allen hasn't been for a while (as much as I loved Vicky Cristina Barcelona.) The fact is that I think this year will be a near-sweep for The Artist. Most of us have not seen what the judges are working form. I have a copy of The Artist's screenplay here, and it's pretty intricate.
Will win: The Artist
Should win: A Separation
Best Director
Woody Allen seems out of place here. Even Alexander Payne seems a little out of place. As much as I love The Descendants, it's for the acting and the screenplay. The Tree of Life was pretty much an impossible task, which Terrence Malick handily succeeded in. He's my choice, easily, but I think the contest is between the remaining two. Martin Scorsese just got one for The Departed, and even if the academy feels like it owes him another after ignoring him for so long, Hazanavicius made a silent film watchable in 2011, which seems like it was probably pretty hard. My money's on him.
Will win: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Should win: Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life
Best Supporting Actress
Chastain is nominated for the wrong role, which is a shame, since she had two instances of 'the right role' this year. Melissa McCarthy is one of the worst parts of a bad movie, and is again a joke nomination ala Robert Downey Junior. No one cares about Ablert Nobbs, so Janet McTeer is basically out. That leaves the two that can win. Octavia Spencer has won a number of seasonal awards for The Help, but I'm going to go with my 'massive sweep for The Artist theory again. Bejo is great in it, and she'd deserve it.
Will win: Berenice Bejo for The Artist
Should win: Berenice Bejo for The Artist
Best Supporting Actor
I haven't seen My Week With Marilyn, but I assume Branagh is very good in it. Jonah Hill is fantastic in Moneyball, but he seems unlikely to win. Nick Nolte is the third-best actor in Warrior, and I don't think he can win either. Max von Sydow is a really weird nomination, and I don't think he can win either. This is all about Christopher Plummer.
Will win: Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Should win: of those nominated? Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Best Actress
Rooney Mara is a borderline offensive nomination after Noomi Rapace didn't get one. Everyone still doesn't care about Albert Nobbs - sorry, Glen Close. I still wish IO'd seen Michelle Williams n Marilyn, because I hate the two roles which can win. The Iron Lady is trash, all around, and Meryl Streep really isn't all that good in it either. With that in mind, I'd actually rather see Viola Davis take it.
Will win: Viola Davis for The Help
Should win: Michelle Williams for My Week With Marilyn (always a worry when I'm pushing for the performance I haven't seen...)
Best Actor
Gary Oldman can't win. Demian Bechir can't win. I'm sorry to say Brad Pitt can't win, because he is excellent. This is Clooney's best-ever performance and he absolutely deserves the win, but The Artist is a monster. Dujardin is very good, but not on Clooney's level.
Will win: Jean Dujardin for The Artist
Should win: George Clooney for The Descendants
Best Picture
The movies with literally zero chance of winning are: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, War Horse, Moneyball, The Help, Midnight in Paris. That leaves - The Tree of Life, which I love, and is a crazy, near-impossible wildcard. Hugo - An eleven-nomination giant, which still seems pretty unlikely to me. The Descendants, which I thought would win for a long time, and I'd be happier to see take the trophy. And of course The Artist, which seems like it has about a 90% chance of winning.
Will win: The Artist
Should win: The Tree of Life (but I would accept The Descendants)
And briefly, the less predictable categories, for completion's sake.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: A Separation
Should win: A Separation
Best Cinematography
Will win: The Tree of Life
Should win: The Tree of Life
Best Editing
Will win: The Artist
Should win: The Artist
Best Art Direction
Will win: The Artist
Should win: Hugo
Best Costumes
Will win: The Artist
Should win: The Artist
Best Makeup
Will win: The Iron Lady
Should win: Harry Potter, I guess. None of them are great.
Best Original Score
Will win: The Artist
Should win: The Artist (Seriously, how many movie scores do you remember from this year? Pretty much just this, and War Horse because it was terrible.)
Best Original Song
Will win: The Muppets
Should win: The Muppets
Best Sound Mixing (excuse me for a second while I research what the sound categories actually mean)
Will win: Hugo
Should win: Hugo
Best Sound Editing
Will win: Hugo
Should win: Drive
Best Visual Effects
Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Short Documentary (complete guesses from here on out)
Will win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Best Short Animated Film
Will win: La Luna
Best Short Live Action Film
Will win: The Shore
